Australia’s smoking collapse and the nicotine paradox
di Lorenzo Bruno
Australia has driven daily smoking to a historic low, but it would be premature to declare the battle against nicotine dependence over. Initial findings from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s 2025 National Drug Strategy Household Survey show that 5.6% of people aged 14 and over smoke daily, down from 8.3% in 2022-2023 and 19.5% in 2001. The number of daily smokers is about 1.3 million, compared with three million at the beginning of the century. The proportion of the population that used at least one nicotine product during the previous 12 months also fell from 17.4% to 15.2%, the lowest level in the series. In prevalence terms, the achievement is substantial.
The figure does not, however, measure total daily consumption or the quantity of nicotine absorbed. The survey, based on interviews with more than 17,500 people between June and December 2025, captures self-reported behavior and cannot causally attribute every change to the latest reforms. The decline in smoking is the cumulative product of taxation, plain packaging, advertising bans, health warnings, prevention campaigns, smoke-free environments and social denormalization. Detailed AIHW analysis of supply sources and consumption patterns is due in August 2026.
The distinction between prevalence and quantity is decisive. In June 2026, the Australian Bureau of Statistics published experimental estimates based on nicotine metabolites in wastewater. Under the model, total nicotine consumption increased by almost 40% between 2017 and 2025, against population growth of 14%, and 80% of consumption in 2025 was attributed to illicit sources. This does not automatically contradict AIHW: fewer users may consume more intensively or use products with different concentrations. But the ABS estimates cover about 60% of the population and rely on assumptions about how nicotine is allocated across products. The defensible conclusion is two-sided: reported prevalence is falling, while aggregate dosage may not have declined.
Vaping also presents a less linear picture than the political narrative suggests. Daily use was broadly stable at 3.6%, compared with 3.5% in 2022-2023; current use – daily, weekly, monthly or less often – fell from 7% to 6%. Among 18-24-year-olds, current use declined from 20.6% to 14%, while daily use remained high at 8.3%. The data are consistent with a halt in the expansion of occasional vaping, but they do not by themselves prove that the reforms caused the fall or that the core population of dependent users is shrinking.
The regulatory framework was implemented in stages. The Vaping Reforms Act, effective from 1 July 2024, prohibits the importation, domestic manufacture, supply, commercial possession, and advertising of disposable and non-therapeutic vapes; it does not ban all e-cigarettes. Since 1 October 2024, adults may obtain therapeutic products up to 20 mg/mL from participating pharmacies without a prescription, following a pharmacist consultation and subject to state law; higher concentrations require a prescription. From 1 July 2025, stricter standards apply to ingredients, concentration, flavours, packaging and labelling. A critical qualification is that products on the notified vape list are not ARTG-approved and have not been individually evaluated by the TGA; the system relies on sponsor notification of compliance.
From 1 July 2025, menthol, flavours and accessories capable of altering taste or intensity are also prohibited; certain physical characteristics are standardised, misleading descriptors removed and new warnings introduced. The Government notes that daily smoking among adults aged 18 and over fell to 5.8%, well below the 10% target for 2025 and close to the objective of 5% or less by 2030. It is nevertheless more rigorous to describe an association with a multi-decade policy package than proof that the 2024 reform alone caused the result.
The health dividend remains material. Smoking causes more than 24,000 deaths a year in Australia; less combustion means lower exposure to tar, carbon monoxide and carcinogens, with potential benefits for health costs, absenteeism and productivity. Cancer Council Australia has called for established measures, including taxation, to be maintained alongside stronger enforcement, campaigns and cessation support. But AIHW does not establish that the current excise level is optimal, or that a tax cut would reduce illegality: it shows that falling prevalence can coexist with substantial substitution towards illicit channels.
Thirty-four per cent of current smokers report recent illicit-tobacco use, up from 16.7% in 2022-2023. Some 22.6% purchased branded products without plain packaging or warnings, while 16.4% smoke unbranded loose tobacco; 57% of buyers of branded illicit tobacco identify a tobacconist as their source. In vaping, only 2.5% of users report obtaining products from a physical pharmacy and 4.8% from an online pharmacy; AIHW attributes the remaining 93% to illicit sources, most commonly tobacconists. The 2.5% estimate has a high relative standard error and must be treated cautiously. The strategic signal is unchanged: the lawful channel is marginal, and retail enforcement is the principal bottleneck.
The fiscal dimension confirms the scale of the problem, without supporting simplistic equations between excise and organized crime. The Australian Taxation Office estimated that 1,741 tonnes of illicit tobacco were in circulation in 2023-2024, around one quarter of the tobacco available for sale, representing A$3.2 billion in theoretically evaded customs and excise duties and a net tax gap of 19.6%. In March 2025, the Government committed an additional A$156.7 million for federal police, asset confiscation, border technology, prosecutors, state authorities and the Office of the Illicit Tobacco and E-cigarette Commissioner. The funding recognizes the risk; it does not prove that enforcement already matches the underground market’s scale.
The new front is oral nicotine. In 2025, 1.8% of people aged 14 and over used nicotine pouches during the previous year; among 18-24-year-olds the rate was 8.4%, while 3.8% reported snus use. Pouches contain no tobacco leaf, but may have high or inconsistent doses, inaccurate labels and undeclared contaminants. No product is included in the Australian Register of Therapeutic Goods, meaning the TGA has not validated its quality, safety or effectiveness for cessation. “Tobacco-free” removes combustion; it does not remove dependence or health uncertainty.
From 24 July 2026, the Albanese Government will close the remaining individual access pathways for unregistered nicotine pouches. They will no longer be importable under the Personal Importation Scheme, even with a prescription; they will not be accessible under the Special Access Scheme or the Authorized Prescriber Scheme; and pharmacists and other practitioners will be unable to prepare them under the compounding exemption. Travelers will not be able to bring them in under the traveler’s exemption. Consumers will have no lawful pathway to buy or import a pouch. A sponsor may still apply for ARTG inclusion with evidence of quality, safety and efficacy, and authorized research pathways will remain available.
The advantage of the decision is preventive: it seeks to stop pouches from reaching the penetration achieved by vapes and clarifies that “tobacco-free” does not mean harmless or therapeutic. The measure is particularly directed at young people and channels cessation efforts towards approved treatments. The limitation is operational: small, concealable products promoted online may feed the illicit market. Demand does not disappear by decree. Effectiveness will require intelligence-led border controls, platform accountability, retailer licensing and inspection, enforceable penalties, financial trading and rapid access to treatment.
Finally, poly-use prevents policymakers from equating fewer users with less harm. The proportion using three or more nicotine products rose from 0.5% to 0.9%, while single-product use fell to 11%. AIHW says this could indicate higher average consumption among people combining cigarettes, vapes and other products, but the survey does not yet prove it. Future releases must measure frequency, concentration, cumulative dose, transitions between products and differences by age and socioeconomic condition.
The final assessment is positive on the decline in smoking, but unresolved on nicotine consumption. Australia has one of the world’s lowest smoking prevalence rates, and its combination of taxation, denormalisation, product restrictions and cessation support remain a benchmark. Success, however, cannot be assessed solely through the 5.6% daily smoking rate: it must include aggregate quantity, dependence, poly-use, illicit share, mortality and enforcement. If Canberra integrates public health, economic and financial intelligence, taxation and distribution control, the decline in smoking can become structural. If regulation continues to move faster than enforcement, the market may be smaller in reported users but more opaque and profitable for illegal networks.
